猪场超过四分之一的非洲猪瘟感染与野猪有关

猪场超过四分之一的非洲猪瘟感染与野猪有关

路德·佩斯

照片：Jan Vullings

野猪在非洲猪瘟（ASF）的传播中发挥着重要作用，但猪场之间的传播仍然是病毒传播的主要途径。这是根据INRAE、Anses和ENVT通过建模研究后得出的结论。

这些研究人员利用多物种流行病学模型，分析了非洲猪瘟如何在家猪和野猪之间传播。该模型根据罗马尼亚的研究数据估计，猪场约 60％ 的感染源自其他受感染的猪场。另外 27％ 的病例与附近受感染的野猪种群有关。

1 基于模型的估计

上述研究人员强调，这些数字是基于模型的估算结果，并且专门针对猪场中的感染情况。因此，它们不应被解释为单一总计的组成部分，而应理解为不同传播途径的相对贡献占比。

2 反方向传播

该研究还揭示了反向传播现象。在野猪种群中，估计有40％的感染可追溯到邻近受感染的猪场，这凸显了非洲猪瘟传播的双向性。

3 罗马尼亚ASF疫情的启迪

该分析聚集于2018年6月至12月罗马尼亚非洲猪瘟疫情的第一阶段。通过结合猪场普查数据、环境数据和疫情暴发记录，该模型还原了可能的传播途径，并量化了各传播路径的相对重要性。

这些研究人员表示，该研究结果表明非洲猪瘟的传播不能仅用猪场之间的传播来解释。因此，有效的控制策略还必须解决野猪和家猪之间的接触问题，例如通过加强生物安全来实现。

该研究为非洲猪瘟传播动态提供了新的见解，也标志着欧洲在在野生动物与家畜界面传染病方面取得了进展。

Wild boar linked to over a quarter of ASF infections on pig farms

Photo: Jan Vullings

Wild boar play a significant role in the spread of African Swine Fever (ASF), but transmission between pig farms remains the dominant pathway. That is according to a modelling study by INRAE, Anses and ENVT.

Using a multi-species epidemiological model, the researchers analysed how ASF spread between domestic pigs and wild boar. Based on data from Romania, the model estimates that around 60% of infections on pig farms originated from other infected farms. A further 27% of cases were linked to nearby infected wild boar populations.

Model-based estimates

The researchers stress that these figures are model-based estimates and relate specifically to infections in pig farms. They therefore should not be interpreted as parts of a single total, but rather as relative contributions of different transmission routes.

Transmission in the opposite direction

The study also highlights transmission in the opposite direction. In wild boar populations, an estimated 40% of infections could be traced back to neighbouring infected pig farms, underlining the bidirectional nature of ASF spread.

Romanian epidemic

The analysis focuses on the first phase of the Romanian epidemic between June and December 2018. By combining farm census data, environmental data and outbreak records, the model reconstructs likely transmission pathways and quantifies their relative importance.

According to the researchers, the findings show that ASF spread cannot be explained by farm-to-farm transmission alone. Effective control strategies must therefore also address the interface between wild boar and domestic pigs, for instance through strengthened biosecurity measures.

The study provides new insights into the dynamics of ASF transmission and represents a step forward in managing infectious diseases at the wildlife–livestock interface in Europe.